In 1992, the University of Minnesota Department of Soil, Water, and Climate was honored by the establishment of an endowment provided by the family of former Minnesota State Climatologist, Earl Louis, and his wife, Leila (Newbrough) Kuehnast. The endowment is used to further teaching and research programs in climatology and meteorology. The Kuehnast Lecture Series is sponsored by this endowment.

-- 19th Annual Lecture --

Thursday, October 13, 2011 - 3:00 PM
Room 335 Borlaug Hall
University of Minnesota
St. Paul Campus

This is a public forum ... all are welcome!

19th Annual Kuehnast Lecture Video Replay (QuickTime)

Abstract:

"If we had observations of the future, we obviously would trust them more than models, but unfortunately observations of the future are not available at this time." (Knutson and Tuleya, 2005)

Climate change is ongoing, and trying to explain what is happening now, and what might happen in the future are key tasks that require large-scale complex climate models of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and cryosphere. But how well do such models perform? Can they predict climate changes in the face of the chaotic dynamics of weather? How have they performed so far? I will discuss how the credibility of model results can be established and what are the current limitations. This involves assessing short term climate variability, the response of the climate system to external factors (such as variability of the sun or large volcanic eruptions), paleo-climate information and how model-data discrepancies get resolved. I will (hopefully) demonstrate that while climate models are by no means perfect, they can be very useful.

For more information contact:

Dr. Mark Seeley
Department of Soil, Water, and Climate
439 Borlaug Hall
1991 Upper Buford Circle
University of Minnesota
St. Paul, MN 55108
(612) 625-4724

Past Presentations in the Kuehnast Lecture Series: